American Women:
key power behind the 2024 Elections

Sabrine Dao

The United States is one of 65 countries heading to the polls this year in one of the most consequential elections in decades. Political and social tensions are high, and the world is looking at how the US is going to address unprecedented social, political, and economic challenges while looking for a new leader. As we move towards election day on November 4, political campaigns are spending millions of Dollars to target various subsets of the American electorate. But one particular group is more important than ever - women. By making up the statistical majority of the US population, women’s choice will significantly shape the result of the elections. But the “women’s vote” is not a monolith, as witnessed in voting trends in both 2016 and 2020 - the salience of political issues is split across overlapping lines such as identity, ethnicity and geography, and a better understanding of these layers of incentives and pressures will improve political party engagement with them in the lead-up to, and after, the 2024 election.

Photo by Sora Shimazaki

The US presidential race is moving at full speed, taking place in a context of the highest levels of political, social, and economic division seen in generations, leaving the next president and government with unprecedented challenges to face. With Vice President Kamala Harris being chosen as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, with the Governor of Minnesota Tim Waltz as her running mate following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, the Party has once again opened the door to the possibility of seeing a woman President of the United States after picking Hillary Clinton in 2016 to face later-elected President Donald Trump. However, given the divided nature of today’s American society and entrenched cultural beliefs, questions remain as to whether the US electorate will be willing to take this historic step.

The involvement of women in the November 2024 election will be significant. Since gaining the right to vote in 1920, women have increasingly exercised their right, contributing to making voter turnout among women higher than for men, especially in the most recent elections. According to Diana O’Brien, the Bela Kornitzer Distinguished Professor in the Department of Political Science at Washington University in St. Louis, during the 2016 and 2020 elections, women represented up to 53% of the electorate with an average gap of 10 million voters between men and women. [1] Moreover, Senior Fellow for Women and Foreign Policy Linda Robinson at the Council of Foreign Policy (CFP), highlights the key role that women will play in November’s elections stating that the politicisation of women’s fundamental rights stays a good reason to go to the polling station and vote. The rise of conservatism and “traditional” views on women’s role in the society and a growing ideological divide between men and women across generations represent a threat to the historic achievement made for women’s rights and gender equality in the US. [2]

The data collected from recent elections also tell us that women are more likely to vote than men, often by a margin of several percentage points. This higher turnout means that women's preferences are more prominently reflected in the results. For example, in the 2020 election, women’s votes were pivotal in helping to secure victory for Biden and Harris, particularly when it comes to issues that women saw as important - for instance, women voted in the majority for Biden and Harris against a backdrop of Trump’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic - a situation where women took a greater share of elder and child care responsibilities, experienced a greater exposure to gender-based violence, and suffered job losses at higher rates than men. [3]

But what will motivate women to vote this November 4? Polling from the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) of more than 3,000 women registered as voters from across the US conducted between May and June 2024 identified key areas of concern: Inflation and the economy, threats to American democracy and reproductive rights.

Cost of living: a lynchpin issue

Like most of the electorate, inflation and the cost of living tops the bill, with 40% of women identifying it as the most important issue that will determine their vote for President. Trump, the Republican nominee, has so far targeted Joe Biden’s record on issues such as immigration, border security and inflation in his bid to return to the White House. Now that Harris has officially been chosen as the Democratic candidate, and considering her role as Vice President, will mean she is likely to inherit Biden’s record over the past four years. Looking at women voters, this could spell trouble for the Harris/Waltz Democrat ticket. Almost half of Democratic women polled by KFF disapprove of Biden’s handling of the cost of living crisis - a legacy that Harris may struggle to shake off. [4] Despite strong economic growth since the pandemic, inflation has created a negative perception of the state of the economy among voters, with data from the Consumer Price Index showing that Americans are paying 20% more for goods and services in mid-2024 compared to January 2021. [5] With rising inflation being a much more impactful economic marker on individual Americans than figures such as a growing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or falling unemployment rates, it is likely that women voters will assimilate those dynamics to Harris’ proximity to Biden over the past four years and the effect that inflation has had on their household finances - notably a rise in prices following on from the pandemic, where women already left the labour force at higher rates than men. [6]

Women’s greater stake in defending democracy

With the memory of the January 6 insurrection still fresh in the minds of many Americans, KFF also found that one in five women say that threats to democracy are the most important issue driving them to vote. [7] The Trump-Vance Republican ticket seems to epitomise the capture of the Republican Party by a far-right conservative movement that has eroded trust in American democracy since 2016; election result denial and political interference in the judiciary being two examples of this democratic backsliding. Kamala Harris and Tim Waltz have placed themselves firmly in opposition to this Republican tendency, [8] which could appeal to women who are concerned about threats to the democratic fabric of the nation. This trend is also reflected in the role that women have played in organising to protect democracy. Often overlapping with issues such as gender equality and reproductive rights, American women have been crucial in moments such as the Women’s March of 2017 and standing against Trump-affiliated candidates at the 2018 midterm elections. [9] Women leaders have also shown that they are able to galvanise support, such as Stacy Abrams, author, lawyer and former Member of the Georgia House of Representatives credited with driving voter registration that helped swing Georgia towards Joe Biden in the 2020 Presidential Election. [10] This strong support for democracy among women and the high importance that women place on defending democracy when considering their vote in this upcoming election could play a major role in its outcome. What’s more, as noted by Ted Piccone, non-resident senior fellow in the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institute, more gender equity is positively correlated with a more open and free democracy. [11] This drive for a democratic process that is free, fair and inclusive could, in turn, help build on the progress towards gender equity that women have achieved so far in the US.

Reproductive rights and sexual health: a “referendum” election?

One of the most high-profile issues in women’s minds when casting their ballot, and an area where this equity is under threat, is sexual and reproductive health, such as access to an abortion and birth control. On this topic, women voters are more likely to say it is the most important issue deciding their vote compared to the electorate as a whole. While Trump’s view on abortion access has not always chimed with his voter base, leading the Republican National Convention (July 15-18, 2024) to agree to soften its stance on abortion restrictions in the upcoming presidential campaign to match his rhetoric, Trump has previously taken credit for the decision by conservative Supreme Court justices to overturn the 1973 Roe v Wade decision that offered a degree of rights for women to seek abortion across all 50 states. As a reminder, Trump appointed three of the six judges that made the landmark decision during his presidency. [12]  By contrast, Harris has been a stalwart in the defence of reproductive rights, making this topic a priority to counter the “Red Wave” anticipated during the 2022 midterms that, arguably, would have endangered this fundamental right. [13] She also became the first Vice President or President to visit an abortion provider earlier this year as part of a “reproductive freedoms tour”, saying: “Every person of whatever gender should understand that, if such a fundamental freedom such as the right to make decisions about your own body can be taken, be aware of what other freedoms may be at stake.” [14]

Against a backdrop of debates about abortion in almost every state in the Union, with some states discussing whether to ban abortion completely or restrict it and others discussing measures to protect its threatened legality, the Democrats and Harris look to be capitalising on this clear divide on reproductive rights. Harris, for example, has already begun referring to these measures as “Trump abortion ban[s]”, [15] a political strategy to tie the former President’s name to unpopular ballot initiatives. What’s more, in a polarised political landscape where getting people out to vote is key to securing  the White House, abortion-related ballot initiatives seem likely to push more Democratic women to vote than states where such initiatives are not on the ballot - and this includes key battleground states such as Florida and Arizona. [16] While issues such as the economy and the cost of living prove more important to the majority of women than access to reproductive health and abortion rights, it is an issue that has become geographically salient as some states impose restrictions or bans and others move to protect reproductive health - much like with access to gender-affirming care, which has also become highly politicised. With the need to win over women and in key swing states, the Democrats may exploit the fact that these topics have become “wedge” issues and turn this election into a referendum on abortion, reproductive healthcare and gender-affirming care to distract from other areas where they may struggle, such as their record on inflation.

Ethnic differences among women and their impact on the race for the White House

It is important to highlight the fact that even if we see a dominance of interest in some particular issues, the electorate of women is not a monolith and like many issues in American politics, party preference is split along ethnic and geographic lines. The majority of white women - who at 40% make up the single largest group of the American electorate, with 58.5 million of them voting in 2022 [17] - intend to vote for Donald Trump, [18] although recent events on the campaign trail may point to a dip in support for the Republican nominee among this demographic, with white women expressing an increasing enthusiasm for Kamala Harris. [19] Suburban women - an important constituency for presidential candidates - leaned Democrat in both 2016 and 2020, where there was a 16% swing towards Biden in 2020. Furthermore, for the first time since 2012, the Republican candidate failed to secure the vote of white suburban women. [20]

It is clear that securing the votes of the “white woman” demographic as a whole will be key in the race for the White House. This may prove difficult for Harris and the Democrats given this group’s overall backing for Trump, but these swings observed towards the Democrats among white suburban women could mark the beginning of a demographic shift that could tip the balance in favour of the Harris campaign. Traditionally, the Democrats have garnered the most votes from across the spectrum of non-white ethnic minorities but in a United States of increasing diversity, the Republicans have managed to make some inroads beyond their base. Figures from the Pew Research Center from 2024 show that one in three Hispanic and Asian voters are Republicans, with officials from the Republican Party saying that the GOP’s focus on conservative “family values” is capturing the attention of many right-leaning Latinos. [21] But Pew Center research also shows that Hispanic voters tend to hold views on issues such as gun control and immigration that do not align with non-Hispanic Republican voters. [22] This could have an impact on the outcome of the election in key swing states such as Arizona, where a quarter of voters in the upcoming election are expected to be Hispanic, according to data from the NALEO Educational Fund. [23] As regards Asian Americans, Pew Research Center figures show that although most communities lean Democrat, Republicans are making inroads in the Asian-American vote, particularly among 3rd-generation Asian Americans. [24] This spells out a trend that could prove worrisome for the Democrats in elections to come.

But for 2024, an ethnic demographic that could prove vital for the Democratic camp is Black women. One of the Democrats’ staunchest groups of supporters, 90% of Black women voted for Joe Biden four years ago, [25] and up to 77% of Black women either identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared to 8% who identify as Republican. [26] Now with the nomination of Kamala Harris, the first Black-South Asian woman nominee for President from either party, this may further solidify support among the most loyal of Democratic voting blocs. "It's … true that she will benefit from her race and her gender, that many African Americans may rally to her candidacy," Jamal Simmons, a former Harris aide, told Reuters following her entry into the presidential race. [27] What’s more, polling from The Cut found that more Black women approve of how the Vice President is handling her role than how Joe Biden is handling his. [28] This rallying of Black women voters could prove decisive for Kamala Harris in states with large Black populations, such as Georgia - which ultimately turned blue in 2020 for the first time since 1992. [29] The changing ethnic profile of many US states and socioeconomic changes that are turning the suburbs of many American cities more blue could mean that states previously considered “safe” in either direction could become battlegrounds in the 2024 and future elections.

Independent women: the key for victory?

But with the key issues at stake at this election seeming to galvanise the bases of both the Democrats and the Republicans, one group of people could play a pivotal role in the way the election swings: independent women. This group identifies neither as Republican nor Democrat, is based across the US, and has been shown to be a key demographic group that candidates need to win over in order to clinch the presidency. [30] The exit poll from the 2020 presidential election showed that 60 percent of independent women voted for Biden, and while more independent women voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, they were not in the majority - helping to deliver Donald Trump a path to victory. [31]

In 2024, independent voters - and independent women - will play a key role again. But for the Harris/Waltz campaign this may not be a clear-cut winner, even after polling showed that over half of self-described independents said that Donald Trump should drop out of the race following his conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records earlier this year. [32] For example Hispanic women, who increasingly lean independent, have told pollsters that they mistrust the two main parties but particularly the Democratic Party following the debacle of Joe Biden’s abandoned presidential bid. [33] This mistrust may manifest in the great killer of any electoral campaign - voter apathy. KFF polling found that 31% of independent women are “less motivated” to vote, which is greater than women who identify as Republicans or Democrats, and almost 40% of independent women say they are “uninterested” in the presidential race. [34] By even choosing to turn up on polling day, these independent women could hold significant sway in the outcome of the election.

While American politics has never been devoid of “machismo”, the conversation surrounding the differences between Donald Trump and Joe Biden before the latter’s withdrawal from the race were emblematic of a politics that favours the “strongman” leader. But the entry on to the stage of Kamala Harris reminds us that the largest constituency up for grabs on November 4 is women, and women will play a pivotal role in this presidential election. The question of access to reproductive health could prove a key battleground on the campaign trail, even if it is not the most pressing issue for most American women. And in an increasingly divided country, the presidential candidates from the two main parties could aim to swing “independent” voters - with women from key demographics increasingly identifying as independent.

But in order to earn these votes, politics in the US must engage women from across society. Currently, this is proving to be difficult with growing apathy towards the political apparatus. The election of a first woman president in November could energise a new generation of women to believe that they have a place in politics - but the aforementioned machismo of US politics will not go away immediately if Kamala Harris were to be elected. Rather, root and branch change is required to build a politics that brings women’s concerns into the mainstream in a serious way - discussions about reproductive rights, healthcare, childcare, the economy, and society that have women at the heart, not at the periphery.

Sabrine Dao is a multilingual political scientist and human rights lawyer. She works in global peacebuilding affairs at Search for Common Ground. She serves as a Security & Intelligence Research Analyst at the Africa Center for Strategy & Policy. At WIIS UK, Sabrine chairs the Human Security & Peacebuilding Working Group. She is the founder and director of the strategic consultancy organisation Human Rights Advisors (HRA) and is a Fellow on Feminist Foreign Policy & Development with the Heinrich Böll Foundation.

Citations

[1] "Women in Politics." U.S. Department of State, 11 Aug. 2024, link.

[2] Council on Foreign Relations. “Women Voters’ Pivotal Role in Electing the Next U.S. President.” CFR, 20 Oct. 2023, link.

[3] Brzezinski, Mika. “How Women Voters Decided the 2020 Election.” MSNBC, 20 Nov. 2020, link.

[4] “KFF Survey of Women Voters: Key Takeaways.” KFF, 11 July 2023, link.

[5] Tappe, Anneken. “Harris' Economic Stance and Its Potential Impact on the 2024 Presidential Race.” CNN Business, 27 July 2024, link.

[6] Huang, Chandra. “She-Flation: What the Rise in Inflation Might Mean for Women.” Institute for Women's Policy Research, 12 July 2024, link.

[7] “KFF Survey of Women Voters: Key Takeaways.” Op. Cit.

[8] “We’re Fighting to Preserve Democracy,” Says VP Kamala Harris at APIAVote Presidential Town Hall.” Ethnic Media Services, 22 July 2024, link.

[9] Kendall-Taylor, Andrea, et al. “On the Front Lines: Women's Mobilization for Democracy in an Era of Backsliding.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 24 Mar. 2024, link.

[10] Fausset, Richard. “How Stacey Abrams Pulled Georgia to the Left.” The New York Times, 6 Nov. 2020, link.

[11] Hudson, Valerie M., et al. The Relationship between Democracy, Gender, and Security: A Cross-National Perspective. The Brookings Institution, Sept. 2017, link.

[12] "Republicans Set to Double Down on Abortion Stance at RNC 2024." AP News, 18 July 2024, link.

[13] Shalal, Andrea. “With Kamala Harris, Democrats Would Bet Against U.S. History of Sexism, Racism.” Reuters, 21 July 2024, link.

[14] Subramanian, Tara. “Ukraine, Abortion, and Guns: Where Does Kamala Harris Stand on Key Issues?” Sky News, 28 July 2024, link.

[15] "Kamala Harris's Record on Key Issues." BBC News, 27 July 2024, link.

[16] “KFF Survey of Women Voters: Key Takeaways.” Op. Cit.

[17] “Report: Women Voters by the Numbers.” League of Women Voters, 17 July 2024, link.

[18] “Quinnipiac Poll: U.S. Voters Lean Toward Trump in 2024.” Quinnipiac University Poll, 21 July 2024, link.

[19] Solis, Stephania Taladrid. “Kamala Harris, Trump, and the Fight for White Women’s Vote.” Axios, 28 July 2024, link.

[20] Ayres, Whit. Suburban Women and the 2020 Election: A Post-Election Survey. Public Opinion Strategies, Nov. 2020, link.

[21] Jansen, Bart. “Trump and the Latino Vote in the 2024 Election.” USA Today, 17 July 2024, link.

[22] “Latino Republicans Hold Distinct Views on Guns and Immigration.” Pew Research Center, 7 Nov. 2022, link.

[23] “NEF Election 2024: Latino Vote Projections.” NALEO Educational Fund, 5 July 2024, link.

[24] Dorell, Oren. “Asian American Support for Democrats Across Generations.” Axios, 31 May 2023, link.

[25] “By the Numbers: Black Women Voters in the 2024 Election.” Higher Heights for America PAC, 15 July 2024, link.

[26] “KFF Survey of Black Women Voters: 4 Key Takeaways for the 2024 Election.” KFF, 20 July 2024, link.

[27] Shalal, Andrea. “With Kamala Harris, Democrats Would Bet Against U.S. History of Sexism, Racism.” Reuters, 21 July 2024, link.

[28] Wang, Jeanna Smialek. “How Black Women View Biden and Harris Ahead of 2024.” The Cut, 30 July 2024, link.

[29] Thompson, Derek. “Biden, Georgia, and Kamala Harris's Role in the 2024 Election.” Politico, 30 July 2024, link.

[30] McCarthy, Martha Joynt. “Independent Voters: Influential but Hard to Reach.” The Conversation, 21 July 2024, link.

[31] "Exit Polls from the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election." CNN, 9 Nov. 2016, link.

[32] Bushard, Brian. “Post-Trump Conviction Polls Show Warning Signs.” Forbes, 4 June 2024, link.

[33] Bruenig, Elizabeth. “Independent Female Voters and the Kamala Harris Dilemma.” The Guardian, 7 July 2024, link.

[34] "2024 Survey of Women Voters Dashboard." KFF, 15 July 2024, link.